Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, February 7th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing early weakness, pushing the Dow down 78 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (3.64%), keeping rates relatively close to yesterday’s morning pricing.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 3.64%

78

Dow

33,812

12

NASDAQ

11,875

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data set for release today, but we do have a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Powell to watch midday. He is having a public conversation with the Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at 12:40 PM ET. There is no specific topic of the conversation, meaning we can expect a wide range of issues to be addressed. Traders will be watching his words closely, especially after Friday’s surprisingly strong employment data that undermines the possibility of a U.S. recession. This event could very well be a market mover and could lead to an early afternoon revision in rates.

Medium

Unknown

Domestic Political Issues

President Biden will deliver the State of the Union speech this evening at 9:00 PM ET. He is likely to point out the positives over the past year (look for employment numbers to be mentioned more than once) and discuss current geopolitical issues such as recent events with China and Ukraine. It will likely be much more political talk than substance that the markets can use. In other words, his speech tonight is not likely to have a significant impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow also lacks any relevant economic data, but does have the 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place. This type of sale gives us an indication of demand for longer-term securities, such as mortgage-related bonds. If it is met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. That would be favorable for mortgage rates. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, may lead to broader bond selling that translates into an upward afternoon revision to mortgage pricing before the end of the day.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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