Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, September 17th

Monday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with little to drive trading today. Stocks are showing losses of 10 points in the Dow and 71 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (3.00%), which with Friday’s afternoon weakness should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by less than .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 3.00%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Bond Trends

There is nothing of relevant set for release today or tomorrow. In fact, the entire week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports, none of which are considered to be highly important. Despite the lack of economic data, it still may be an interesting week as the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is right at 3.00%. If it breaks above and stays there, we very well could see an upward trend in mortgage rates begin. However, we have been here several times over the past year and each time it has retreated from this level. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, we want to see it move lower.



Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

Tomorrow also lacks anything of importance that we need to watch. August's Housing Starts will start this week's activities early Wednesday morning. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects but likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show that starts of new homes rose last month, indicating strength in the housing sector. That is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. However, this data is not important enough to cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates unless there is a wide variance between forecasts and the actual results.




Overall, no particular day stands out as the most important for rates. We could see movement any or every day. However, the daily moves will likely be small. It still will be prudent to watch the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate though. This is because the markets can turn volatile without notice by events such as tariff or geopolitical news.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.